Social Security — Penn Wharton Budget Model Top

Policies

OASDI Tax Rate

12.4%Progressive Increase13.6%14.9%

Taxable Maximum Policy

$128,700$150,000

Payroll Taxes on Wage Earnings Above $250,000

None1/2 OASDI RateFull OASDI Rate

Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) Index

CPIElderly CPIChained CPI

Primary Insurance Amount (PIA)

90/32/1590/25/880/22/5

Full-Benefit Retirement Age (FRA)

676870
Key Assumptions

Foreign Investment Flows into U.S.

0%40%70%100%

Social Security

Published on August 8, 2018

The Social Security Trust Fund consists of excess revenues from Social Security taxes, which are invested in non-marketable Treasury securities. Interest income from these securities that is not used to pay benefits is also deposited in the Trust Fund.

The real (inflation-adjusted) value of the Trust Fund is expected to decline over time. Even during the next few years, when the difference between Social Security's interest income and its non-interest revenue shortfall will be positive, deposits into the Trust Fund will be insufficient to offset losses in its real value because of inflation. As the difference between program costs and income from Social Security taxes grows larger, interest income will eventually be insufficient to cover the non-interest revenue shortfall. Trust Fund securities would then have to be redeemed to pay lawful benefits, accelerating the decline in the Trust Fund's real value.

More information about the Penn Wharton Budget Model's Social Security simulator.

Policy Brief summarizing findings about Social Security’s Financial Condition.

More information about the ranges and default settings for the policy simulator dial controls.


NOTE: Constant dollars are for 2018 base year.