The data for our analysis stem from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97), a representative survey of U.S. residents born between 1980 and 1984 that follows subjects over time with subsequent surveys administered (bi-)annually. Focusing on enrollment decisions before age 30, we partition the sample of students into three groups: i) students who first enroll in a two-year college, ii) students who first enroll in a four-year college, and iii) students who have no post-secondary enrollment (“non-attendees”). We examine how these three groups differ by household income and three measures of student ability: Armed Services Qualification Test (AFQT) scores, high school grade point average (GPA), and high school class rank. The AFQT is administered to respondents to create an additional ability measure that is less influenced by local GPA norms.
The distribution of students by family income (in 1996) for each of the three groups is displayed in Figure 1. Students who first attend four-year universities tend to come from higher-income backgrounds than their peers. The median family income among students who first attended four-year institutions in our sample is $58,500, 39 percent above the $42,000 median for two-year attendees and 89 percent above the $31,000 median for non-attendees. Though the median family income is lower among community college students, 30 percent of students who first attend two-year college are from families with incomes above $58,500.
Looking by measures of student ability, we see more disparate differences in attendance choice than for household income. Figure 2 shows that the distribution of AFQT scores is dissimilar for the three groups. Scores for non-attendees are bunched towards the lower-third of the score range, those for two-year students more diffuse but concentrated toward the middle, and those for four-year students bunched toward the upper-third. The median scores for the no college, first two-year, and first four-year students are 24.0, 46.7, and 74.2, respectively. Among students who first attend a four-year university, 82 percent have AFQT scores above the median for two-year attendees.
The summary is similar if we focused on high school GPA instead of AFQT. As Figure 3 shows, the distributions of GPA for high school students who do not attend or attend two-year institution first are noticeably lower than those of four-year attendees. The median high school GPA among four-year entrants is 3.28, compared with 2.79 for two-year entrants and 2.54 for non-attendees. Roughly 82 percent of students who first attend a four-year university have a high school GPA above the median among students who first attend two-year institutions.
Last, we analyze differences between students first attending two-year and four-year colleges by one final metric of student performance: class rank. In the NLSY97 data, students provide the size of their graduating high school cohort (up to 100 students; 101–220; 221–330 and 331–470, which we combine; and above 470) along with where they rank within the cohort. For each cohort size, we look at the rates of enrollment in two-year and four-year programs by students' graduating positions.
Two observations stand out. First, we observe the same pattern across all cohort sizes: top-ranked students are increasingly likely to first attend four-year, with middle- and lower-ranked students increasingly likely to first attend two-year institutions. (Notably, this pattern is weakest among the smallest graduating cohorts, possibly reflecting the increased imprecision of relative ability tied to class rank). Evidently, two- and four-year institutions are not competing for top students. The probabilities that a student attends either a two-year or four-year university first converge as we approach rankings around one-third to one-half of the class size, suggesting that the ability of the marginal student attending a two-year institution falls around this range. Second, the fraction of top-ranked students who first attend a two-year college is not zero. Especially for the smallest and largest class sizes, upwards of one-fifth of top students attend a two-year institution first.
(a) Class size up to 100
(b) Class size 101-220
(c) Class size 221-470
(d) Class size above 470
This analysis was produced by Jason Sockin with direction provided by Kent Smetters. Prepared for the website by Mariko Paulson.
Income No college Income First 2 year Income First 4 year 5.00000000 0.00000764 6.00000000 0.00000497 5.00000000 0.00000203 829.31103679 0.00000813 830.30769231 0.00000529 829.31103679 0.00000219 1653.62207358 0.00000861 1654.61538462 0.00000561 1653.62207358 0.00000235 2477.93311037 0.00000909 2478.92307692 0.00000593 2477.93311037 0.00000252 3302.24414716 0.00000957 3303.23076923 0.00000626 3302.24414716 0.00000270 4126.55518395 0.00001004 4127.53846154 0.00000659 4126.55518395 0.00000288 4950.86622074 0.00001050 4951.84615385 0.00000691 4950.86622074 0.00000306 5775.17725753 0.00001096 5776.15384615 0.00000724 5775.17725753 0.00000324 6599.48829431 0.00001142 6600.46153846 0.00000755 6599.48829431 0.00000343 7423.79933110 0.00001186 7424.76923077 0.00000787 7423.79933110 0.00000362 8248.11036789 0.00001230 8249.07692308 0.00000818 8248.11036789 0.00000382 9072.42140468 0.00001272 9073.38461538 0.00000848 9072.42140468 0.00000402 9896.73244147 0.00001312 9897.69230769 0.00000878 9896.73244147 0.00000422 10721.04347826 0.00001351 10722.00000000 0.00000908 10721.04347826 0.00000441 11545.35451505 0.00001388 11546.30769231 0.00000936 11545.35451505 0.00000459 12369.66555184 0.00001423 12370.61538462 0.00000964 12369.66555184 0.00000478 13193.97658863 0.00001456 13194.92307692 0.00000992 13193.97658863 0.00000498 14018.28762542 0.00001489 14019.23076923 0.00001019 14018.28762542 0.00000518 14842.59866221 0.00001519 14843.53846154 0.00001046 14842.59866221 0.00000539 15666.90969900 0.00001547 15667.84615385 0.00001071 15666.90969900 0.00000559 16491.22073579 0.00001572 16492.15384615 0.00001095 16491.22073579 0.00000580 17315.53177258 0.00001594 17316.46153846 0.00001116 17315.53177258 0.00000601 18139.84280936 0.00001612 18140.76923077 0.00001137 18139.84280936 0.00000621 18964.15384615 0.00001629 18965.07692308 0.00001159 18964.15384615 0.00000642 19788.46488294 0.00001641 19789.38461538 0.00001178 19788.46488294 0.00000664 20612.77591973 0.00001651 20613.69230769 0.00001195 20612.77591973 0.00000686 21437.08695652 0.00001658 21438.00000000 0.00001211 21437.08695652 0.00000707 22261.39799331 0.00001661 22262.30769231 0.00001226 22261.39799331 0.00000729 23085.70903010 0.00001661 23086.61538462 0.00001238 23085.70903010 0.00000751 23910.02006689 0.00001660 23910.92307692 0.00001250 23910.02006689 0.00000773 24734.33110368 0.00001656 24735.23076923 0.00001260 24734.33110368 0.00000793 25558.64214047 0.00001649 25559.53846154 0.00001268 25558.64214047 0.00000813 26382.95317726 0.00001642 26383.84615385 0.00001276 26382.95317726 0.00000832 27207.26421405 0.00001633 27208.15384615 0.00001283 27207.26421405 0.00000851 28031.57525084 0.00001623 28032.46153846 0.00001288 28031.57525084 0.00000870 28855.88628763 0.00001613 28856.76923077 0.00001293 28855.88628763 0.00000888 29680.19732441 0.00001602 29681.07692308 0.00001297 29680.19732441 0.00000906 30504.50836120 0.00001592 30505.38461538 0.00001301 30504.50836120 0.00000922 31328.81939799 0.00001580 31329.69230769 0.00001305 31328.81939799 0.00000937 32153.13043478 0.00001567 32154.00000000 0.00001310 32153.13043478 0.00000952 32977.44147157 0.00001552 32978.30769231 0.00001313 32977.44147157 0.00000968 33801.75250836 0.00001537 33802.61538462 0.00001317 33801.75250836 0.00000984 34626.06354515 0.00001521 34626.92307692 0.00001319 34626.06354515 0.00001000 35450.37458194 0.00001504 35451.23076923 0.00001320 35450.37458194 0.00001017 36274.68561873 0.00001485 36275.53846154 0.00001320 36274.68561873 0.00001032 37098.99665552 0.00001463 37099.84615385 0.00001319 37098.99665552 0.00001047 37923.30769231 0.00001440 37924.15384615 0.00001316 37923.30769231 0.00001062 38747.61872910 0.00001417 38748.46153846 0.00001313 38747.61872910 0.00001076 39571.92976589 0.00001391 39572.76923077 0.00001308 39571.92976589 0.00001090 40396.24080268 0.00001365 40397.07692308 0.00001304 40396.24080268 0.00001102 41220.55183946 0.00001340 41221.38461538 0.00001300 41220.55183946 0.00001114 42044.86287625 0.00001315 42045.69230769 0.00001294 42044.86287625 0.00001124 42869.17391304 0.00001288 42870.00000000 0.00001287 42869.17391304 0.00001132 43693.48494983 0.00001263 43694.30769231 0.00001280 43693.48494983 0.00001140 44517.79598662 0.00001237 44518.61538462 0.00001271 44517.79598662 0.00001147 45342.10702341 0.00001209 45342.92307692 0.00001261 45342.10702341 0.00001153 46166.41806020 0.00001181 46167.23076923 0.00001249 46166.41806020 0.00001159 46990.72909699 0.00001152 46991.53846154 0.00001236 46990.72909699 0.00001164 47815.04013378 0.00001122 47815.84615385 0.00001222 47815.04013378 0.00001169 48639.35117057 0.00001093 48640.15384615 0.00001208 48639.35117057 0.00001174 49463.66220736 0.00001063 49464.46153846 0.00001194 49463.66220736 0.00001178 50287.97324415 0.00001033 50288.76923077 0.00001179 50287.97324415 0.00001179 51112.28428094 0.00001003 51113.07692308 0.00001162 51112.28428094 0.00001180 51936.59531773 0.00000973 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72544.37123746 0.00000935 73368.68227425 0.00000393 73369.38461538 0.00000697 73368.68227425 0.00000918 74192.99331104 0.00000382 74193.69230769 0.00000679 74192.99331104 0.00000900 75017.30434783 0.00000371 75018.00000000 0.00000662 75017.30434783 0.00000882 75841.61538462 0.00000360 75842.30769231 0.00000645 75841.61538462 0.00000863 76665.92642140 0.00000350 76666.61538462 0.00000628 76665.92642140 0.00000843 77490.23745819 0.00000339 77490.92307692 0.00000612 77490.23745819 0.00000823 78314.54849498 0.00000330 78315.23076923 0.00000598 78314.54849498 0.00000805 79138.85953177 0.00000320 79139.53846154 0.00000583 79138.85953177 0.00000787 79963.17056856 0.00000312 79963.84615385 0.00000568 79963.17056856 0.00000770 80787.48160535 0.00000304 80788.15384615 0.00000554 80787.48160535 0.00000751 81611.79264214 0.00000296 81612.46153846 0.00000539 81611.79264214 0.00000733 82436.10367893 0.00000288 82436.76923077 0.00000526 82436.10367893 0.00000715 83260.41471572 0.00000280 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93976.45819398 0.00000169 93977.07692308 0.00000324 93976.45819398 0.00000494 94800.76923077 0.00000161 94801.38461538 0.00000310 94800.76923077 0.00000482 95625.08026756 0.00000152 95625.69230769 0.00000295 95625.08026756 0.00000469 96449.39130435 0.00000144 96450.00000000 0.00000280 96449.39130435 0.00000455 97273.70234114 0.00000136 97274.30769231 0.00000265 97273.70234114 0.00000442 98098.01337793 0.00000129 98098.61538462 0.00000252 98098.01337793 0.00000430 98922.32441472 0.00000121 98922.92307692 0.00000240 98922.32441472 0.00000420 99746.63545150 0.00000114 99747.23076923 0.00000228 99746.63545150 0.00000412 100570.94648829 0.00000108 100571.53846154 0.00000217 100570.94648829 0.00000403 101395.25752508 0.00000102 101395.84615385 0.00000206 101395.25752508 0.00000395 102219.56856187 0.00000097 102220.15384615 0.00000196 102219.56856187 0.00000387 103043.87959866 0.00000092 103044.46153846 0.00000187 103043.87959866 0.00000379 103868.19063545 0.00000088 103868.76923077 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33.66579812 0.01244086 33.99124375 0.01248318 34.29951171 0.00480461 33.99585497 0.01236915 34.32449124 0.01251410 34.63301673 0.00487583 34.32591181 0.01235670 34.65773873 0.01256191 34.96652174 0.00493879 34.65596866 0.01229662 34.99098621 0.01262318 35.30002676 0.00501440 34.98602550 0.01222838 35.32423370 0.01269327 35.63353178 0.00512332 35.31608235 0.01211200 35.65748119 0.01274330 35.96703679 0.00523575 35.64613919 0.01202160 35.99072868 0.01278531 36.30054181 0.00535564 35.97619603 0.01188555 36.32397617 0.01281721 36.63404683 0.00543716 36.30625288 0.01173926 36.65722365 0.01287409 36.96755184 0.00548281 36.63630972 0.01161692 36.99047114 0.01291281 37.30105686 0.00552052 36.96636657 0.01157909 37.32371863 0.01293301 37.63456188 0.00558873 37.29642341 0.01155838 37.65696612 0.01289190 37.96806689 0.00567538 37.62648026 0.01150791 37.99021360 0.01281895 38.30157191 0.00575234 37.95653710 0.01146588 38.32346109 0.01273332 38.63507693 0.00579897 38.28659394 0.01142803 38.65670858 0.01264856 38.96858194 0.00585443 38.61665079 0.01140618 38.98995607 0.01254451 39.30208696 0.00594376 38.94670763 0.01141190 39.32320356 0.01244691 39.63559198 0.00604296 39.27676448 0.01134734 39.65645104 0.01240366 39.96909699 0.00610531 39.60682132 0.01123032 39.98969853 0.01235982 40.30260201 0.00614679 39.93687817 0.01113629 40.32294602 0.01232317 40.63610703 0.00619919 40.26693501 0.01103720 40.65619351 0.01228051 40.96961204 0.00627856 40.59699185 0.01092582 40.98944099 0.01223254 41.30311706 0.00635193 40.92704870 0.01079007 41.32268848 0.01218638 41.63662208 0.00643790 41.25710554 0.01064374 41.65593597 0.01207679 41.97012709 0.00651051 41.58716239 0.01055982 41.98918346 0.01202161 42.30363211 0.00660149 41.91721923 0.01046727 42.32243095 0.01202106 42.63713713 0.00666639 42.24727608 0.01032047 42.65567843 0.01210990 42.97064214 0.00672490 42.57733292 0.01014311 42.98892592 0.01223899 43.30414716 0.00680032 42.90738977 0.00992573 43.32217341 0.01234866 43.63765218 0.00690598 43.23744661 0.00977570 43.65542090 0.01243104 43.97115719 0.00702677 43.56750345 0.00960547 43.98866838 0.01249763 44.30466221 0.00714316 43.89756030 0.00945518 44.32191587 0.01258701 44.63816723 0.00732039 44.22761714 0.00924803 44.65516336 0.01261096 44.97167224 0.00753423 44.55767399 0.00903987 44.98841085 0.01257405 45.30517726 0.00776896 44.88773083 0.00880655 45.32165834 0.01256059 45.63868228 0.00800166 45.21778768 0.00853372 45.65490582 0.01251569 45.97218729 0.00819675 45.54784452 0.00826083 45.98815331 0.01249918 46.30569231 0.00837179 45.87790136 0.00806648 46.32140080 0.01248924 46.63919733 0.00855119 46.20795821 0.00788962 46.65464829 0.01245337 46.97270234 0.00871129 46.53801505 0.00769717 46.98789577 0.01241027 47.30620736 0.00888180 46.86807190 0.00754940 47.32114326 0.01231666 47.63971238 0.00904782 47.19812874 0.00740388 47.65439075 0.01223745 47.97321739 0.00917196 47.52818559 0.00732812 47.98763824 0.01222712 48.30672241 0.00930164 47.85824243 0.00729744 48.32088573 0.01225872 48.64022743 0.00944703 48.18829927 0.00722135 48.65413321 0.01230519 48.97373244 0.00958405 48.51835612 0.00710632 48.98738070 0.01231981 49.30723746 0.00971574 48.84841296 0.00703041 49.32062819 0.01230530 49.64074248 0.00981958 49.17846981 0.00697797 49.65387568 0.01231362 49.97424749 0.00991999 49.50852665 0.00695941 49.98712316 0.01230023 50.30775251 0.01001022 49.83858350 0.00696749 50.32037065 0.01224791 50.64125753 0.01008721 50.16864034 0.00697758 50.65361814 0.01215819 50.97476254 0.01013178 50.49869719 0.00702337 50.98686563 0.01207866 51.30826756 0.01015399 50.82875403 0.00712770 51.32011312 0.01204191 51.64177258 0.01015804 51.15881087 0.00720595 51.65336060 0.01207289 51.97527759 0.01009455 51.48886772 0.00726080 51.98660809 0.01212525 52.30878261 0.01004404 51.81892456 0.00730378 52.31985558 0.01217694 52.64228763 0.01004013 52.14898141 0.00740711 52.65310307 0.01218515 52.97579264 0.01006028 52.47903825 0.00746158 52.98635055 0.01215360 53.30929766 0.01003201 52.80909510 0.00752475 53.31959804 0.01215804 53.64280268 0.01001715 53.13915194 0.00758482 53.65284553 0.01210335 53.97630769 0.01007470 53.46920878 0.00766213 53.98609302 0.01197922 54.30981271 0.01017353 53.79926563 0.00773745 54.31934050 0.01183977 54.64331773 0.01027443 54.12932247 0.00781252 54.65258799 0.01167921 54.97682274 0.01034722 54.45937932 0.00783693 54.98583548 0.01152743 55.31032776 0.01042755 54.78943616 0.00788505 55.31908297 0.01140339 55.64383278 0.01049143 55.11949301 0.00793956 55.65233046 0.01130284 55.97733779 0.01050870 55.44954985 0.00794560 55.98557794 0.01121171 56.31084281 0.01053270 55.77960669 0.00797449 56.31882543 0.01108276 56.64434783 0.01056071 56.10966354 0.00800531 56.65207292 0.01099502 56.97785285 0.01057753 56.43972038 0.00802715 56.98532041 0.01099882 57.31135786 0.01063005 56.76977723 0.00803715 57.31856789 0.01099598 57.64486288 0.01074232 57.09983407 0.00798769 57.65181538 0.01097870 57.97836790 0.01088483 57.42989092 0.00788649 57.98506287 0.01095698 58.31187291 0.01103538 57.75994776 0.00775254 58.31831036 0.01094455 58.64537793 0.01119556 58.09000461 0.00761142 58.65155785 0.01095991 58.97888295 0.01136180 58.42006145 0.00742989 58.98480533 0.01096443 59.31238796 0.01150136 58.75011829 0.00724537 59.31805282 0.01096980 59.64589298 0.01164866 59.08017514 0.00709361 59.65130031 0.01097490 59.97939800 0.01176439 59.41023198 0.00699034 59.98454780 0.01102636 60.31290301 0.01187942 59.74028883 0.00686700 60.31779528 0.01109042 60.64640803 0.01199360 60.07034567 0.00671993 60.65104277 0.01115771 60.97991305 0.01202606 60.40040252 0.00655628 60.98429026 0.01127039 61.31341806 0.01203512 60.73045936 0.00641672 61.31753775 0.01143241 61.64692308 0.01207522 61.06051620 0.00631082 61.65078524 0.01158084 61.98042810 0.01211837 61.39057305 0.00615559 61.98403272 0.01170659 62.31393311 0.01213689 61.72062989 0.00598228 62.31728021 0.01182293 62.64743813 0.01215489 62.05068674 0.00581500 62.65052770 0.01184707 62.98094315 0.01221684 62.38074358 0.00567813 62.98377519 0.01180963 63.31444816 0.01233292 62.71080043 0.00561668 63.31702267 0.01172880 63.64795318 0.01242810 63.04085727 0.00557649 63.65027016 0.01164032 63.98145820 0.01249063 63.37091411 0.00551680 63.98351765 0.01153100 64.31496321 0.01260603 63.70097096 0.00548241 64.31676514 0.01138881 64.64846823 0.01270095 64.03102780 0.00549200 64.65001263 0.01124545 64.98197325 0.01274067 64.36108465 0.00549879 64.98326011 0.01116329 65.31547826 0.01274037 64.69114149 0.00552223 65.31650760 0.01111610 65.64898328 0.01267764 65.02119834 0.00553730 65.64975509 0.01112737 65.98248830 0.01259012 65.35125518 0.00555930 65.98300258 0.01119630 66.31599331 0.01256126 65.68131203 0.00558785 66.31625006 0.01120488 66.64949833 0.01259814 66.01136887 0.00561924 66.64949755 0.01114119 66.98300335 0.01266984 66.34142571 0.00565215 66.98274504 0.01104634 67.31650836 0.01276887 66.67148256 0.00568978 67.31599253 0.01095872 67.65001338 0.01287629 67.00153940 0.00571232 67.64924002 0.01087795 67.98351840 0.01296902 67.33159625 0.00569560 67.98248750 0.01079603 68.31702341 0.01305743 67.66165309 0.00565987 68.31573499 0.01072545 68.65052843 0.01318446 67.99170994 0.00562077 68.64898248 0.01065068 68.98403345 0.01331260 68.32176678 0.00557816 68.98222997 0.01061839 69.31753846 0.01345135 68.65182362 0.00547801 69.31547745 0.01057145 69.65104348 0.01355755 68.98188047 0.00535421 69.64872494 0.01048947 69.98454850 0.01364705 69.31193731 0.00525191 69.98197243 0.01042731 70.31805351 0.01368768 69.64199416 0.00519898 70.31521992 0.01045830 70.65155853 0.01369321 69.97205100 0.00511272 70.64846741 0.01055371 70.98506355 0.01367141 70.30210785 0.00499223 70.98171489 0.01068441 71.31856856 0.01366482 70.63216469 0.00484889 71.31496238 0.01080335 71.65207358 0.01365593 70.96222153 0.00467953 71.64820987 0.01086673 71.98557860 0.01365676 71.29227838 0.00451657 71.98145736 0.01091684 72.31908361 0.01372673 71.62233522 0.00437062 72.31470484 0.01093630 72.65258863 0.01378612 71.95239207 0.00422524 72.64795233 0.01093254 72.98609365 0.01383934 72.28244891 0.00408419 72.98119982 0.01089924 73.31959866 0.01393057 72.61250576 0.00394881 73.31444731 0.01081883 73.65310368 0.01402942 72.94256260 0.00387487 73.64769480 0.01068832 73.98660870 0.01411681 73.27261945 0.00381197 73.98094228 0.01060784 74.32011371 0.01417063 73.60267629 0.00380124 74.31418977 0.01054799 74.65361873 0.01422112 73.93273313 0.00375781 74.64743726 0.01048482 74.98712375 0.01425641 74.26278998 0.00371002 74.98068475 0.01045757 75.32062876 0.01428578 74.59284682 0.00367763 75.31393223 0.01039318 75.65413378 0.01431740 74.92290367 0.00365393 75.64717972 0.01030403 75.98763880 0.01435439 75.25296051 0.00366179 75.98042721 0.01017553 76.32114381 0.01442318 75.58301736 0.00373241 76.31367470 0.01003257 76.65464883 0.01450257 75.91307420 0.00382516 76.64692218 0.00988241 76.98815385 0.01459234 76.24313104 0.00392960 76.98016967 0.00973997 77.32165886 0.01469129 76.57318789 0.00402749 77.31341716 0.00960749 77.65516388 0.01484349 76.90324473 0.00409916 77.64666465 0.00945153 77.98866890 0.01501667 77.23330158 0.00414772 77.97991214 0.00932325 78.32217391 0.01519255 77.56335842 0.00418414 78.31315962 0.00919573 78.65567893 0.01534360 77.89341527 0.00418628 78.64640711 0.00907133 78.98918395 0.01554544 78.22347211 0.00419321 78.97965460 0.00889849 79.32268896 0.01572507 78.55352895 0.00424563 79.31290209 0.00877313 79.65619398 0.01586848 78.88358580 0.00427468 79.64614957 0.00869241 79.98969900 0.01600408 79.21364264 0.00425747 79.97939706 0.00863565 80.32320401 0.01612245 79.54369949 0.00421938 80.31264455 0.00860682 80.65670903 0.01624141 79.87375633 0.00416256 80.64589204 0.00858022 80.99021405 0.01639264 80.20381318 0.00411875 80.97913953 0.00858012 81.32371906 0.01658188 80.53387002 0.00404596 81.31238701 0.00857259 81.65722408 0.01676906 80.86392687 0.00391071 81.64563450 0.00853708 81.99072910 0.01697131 81.19398371 0.00375327 81.97888199 0.00849809 82.32423411 0.01717823 81.52404055 0.00359931 82.31212948 0.00842586 82.65773913 0.01739675 81.85409740 0.00346045 82.64537696 0.00829675 82.99124415 0.01758953 82.18415424 0.00331686 82.97862445 0.00821493 83.32474916 0.01777709 82.51421109 0.00324823 83.31187194 0.00817294 83.65825418 0.01803251 82.84426793 0.00317803 83.64511943 0.00807881 83.99175920 0.01831276 83.17432478 0.00307915 83.97836692 0.00795227 84.32526421 0.01858023 83.50438162 0.00295127 84.31161440 0.00781321 84.65876923 0.01881478 83.83443846 0.00280658 84.64486189 0.00767906 84.99227425 0.01898052 84.16449531 0.00266671 84.97810938 0.00756997 85.32577926 0.01915149 84.49455215 0.00255334 85.31135687 0.00742786 85.65928428 0.01934161 84.82460900 0.00247631 85.64460435 0.00725720 85.99278930 0.01951712 85.15466584 0.00241996 85.97785184 0.00710447 86.32629432 0.01963313 85.48472269 0.00234274 86.31109933 0.00699389 86.65979933 0.01975378 85.81477953 0.00225743 86.64434682 0.00687857 86.99330435 0.01983662 86.14483637 0.00218096 86.97759431 0.00678983 87.32680937 0.01989755 86.47489322 0.00214061 87.31084179 0.00674572 87.66031438 0.01992610 86.80495006 0.00213463 87.64408928 0.00675952 87.99381940 0.01996380 87.13500691 0.00215718 87.97733677 0.00677336 88.32732442 0.02001859 87.46506375 0.00218588 88.31058426 0.00677061 88.66082943 0.02008652 87.79512060 0.00220833 88.64383174 0.00673608 88.99433445 0.02013025 88.12517744 0.00220201 88.97707923 0.00669356 89.32783947 0.02016817 88.45523429 0.00218825 89.31032672 0.00665672 89.66134448 0.02020732 88.78529113 0.00216889 89.64357421 0.00664408 89.99484950 0.02020897 89.11534797 0.00215340 89.97682170 0.00670280 90.32835452 0.02020918 89.44540482 0.00213688 90.31006918 0.00678309 90.66185953 0.02022031 89.77546166 0.00209333 90.64331667 0.00681823 90.99536455 0.02025279 90.10551851 0.00203945 90.97656416 0.00683112 91.32886957 0.02030777 90.43557535 0.00198998 91.30981165 0.00677666 91.66237458 0.02035012 90.76563220 0.00194628 91.64305913 0.00671254 91.99587960 0.02038074 91.09568904 0.00190887 91.97630662 0.00666958 92.32938462 0.02041459 91.42574588 0.00191395 92.30955411 0.00665037 92.66288963 0.02047447 91.75580273 0.00194378 92.64280160 0.00661706 92.99639465 0.02060669 92.08585957 0.00195335 92.97604909 0.00651359 93.32989967 0.02081019 92.41591642 0.00194504 93.30929657 0.00636495 93.66340468 0.02103868 92.74597326 0.00191267 93.64254406 0.00618780 93.99690970 0.02125537 93.07603011 0.00186247 93.97579155 0.00604320 94.33041472 0.02148737 93.40608695 0.00180024 94.30903904 0.00587937 94.66391973 0.02175836 93.73614379 0.00173379 94.64228652 0.00568673 94.99742475 0.02203130 94.06620064 0.00165780 94.97553401 0.00548471 95.33092977 0.02224615 94.39625748 0.00156475 95.30878150 0.00532067 95.66443478 0.02249555 94.72631433 0.00146223 95.64202899 0.00515714 95.99793980 0.02269190 95.05637117 0.00136495 95.97527647 0.00496811 96.33144482 0.02268213 95.38642802 0.00127118 96.30852396 0.00477551 96.66494983 0.02247669 95.71648486 0.00118903 96.64177145 0.00457728 96.99845485 0.02208932 96.04654171 0.00113041 96.97501894 0.00436518 97.33195987 0.02157753 96.37659855 0.00107712 97.30826643 0.00411978 97.66546488 0.02092798 96.70665539 0.00101904 97.64151391 0.00383833 97.99896990 0.02012419 97.03671224 0.00095312 97.97476140 0.00355218 98.33247492 0.01923202 97.36676908 0.00088650 98.30800889 0.00323816 98.66597993 0.01825286 97.69682593 0.00080681 98.64125638 0.00291469 98.99948495 0.01712605 98.02688277 0.00071569 98.97450386 0.00265541 99.33298997 0.01592157 98.35693962 0.00062919 99.30775135 0.00242319 99.66649498 0.01465635 98.68699646 0.00053439 99.64099884 0.00218229 100.00000000 0.01334507
GPA No college GPA First 2 year GPA First 4 year 1.00000000 0.06767052 1.00000000 0.00873243 1.00000000 0.00246247 1.01003344 0.06862959 1.01016722 0.00938025 1.01060201 0.00255596 1.02006689 0.06932457 1.02033445 0.00996624 1.02120401 0.00263496 1.03010033 0.06970998 1.03050167 0.01064697 1.03180602 0.00269950 1.04013378 0.06981982 1.04066890 0.01148429 1.04240803 0.00274955 1.05016722 0.06967443 1.05083612 0.01224200 1.05301003 0.00278513 1.06020067 0.06921536 1.06100334 0.01298505 1.06361204 0.00280623 1.07023411 0.06844260 1.07117057 0.01372200 1.07421405 0.00281285 1.08026756 0.06763104 1.08133779 0.01442250 1.08481606 0.00280500 1.09030100 0.06692047 1.09150502 0.01515023 1.09541806 0.00278267 1.10033445 0.06598944 1.10167224 0.01593350 1.10602007 0.00274586 1.11036789 0.06503559 1.11183946 0.01673887 1.11662208 0.00269458 1.12040134 0.06400108 1.12200669 0.01747497 1.12722408 0.00262882 1.13043478 0.06283698 1.13217391 0.01819019 1.13782609 0.00254859 1.14046823 0.06164832 1.14234114 0.01888109 1.14842810 0.00245387 1.15050167 0.06038423 1.15250836 0.01957603 1.15903010 0.00234468 1.16053512 0.05912566 1.16267558 0.02021653 1.16963211 0.00222102 1.17056856 0.05796202 1.17284281 0.02073180 1.18023412 0.00208288 1.18060201 0.05653191 1.18301003 0.02118923 1.19083612 0.00193026 1.19063545 0.05480598 1.19317726 0.02165612 1.20143813 0.00176316 1.20066890 0.05301456 1.20334448 0.02203819 1.21204014 0.00158159 1.21070234 0.05106105 1.21351170 0.02228317 1.22264215 0.00138554 1.22073579 0.04858712 1.22367893 0.02256732 1.23324415 0.00124667 1.23076923 0.04959569 1.23384615 0.02343448 1.24384616 0.00118472 1.24080268 0.05233373 1.24401337 0.02428929 1.25444817 0.00111863 1.25083612 0.05503159 1.25418060 0.02515204 1.26505017 0.00104559 1.26086957 0.05763760 1.26434782 0.02631906 1.27565218 0.00096560 1.27090301 0.06048948 1.27451505 0.02743411 1.28625419 0.00087867 1.28093645 0.06344675 1.28468227 0.02843898 1.29685619 0.00078480 1.29096990 0.06642522 1.29484949 0.02949701 1.30745820 0.00068399 1.30100334 0.06934562 1.30501672 0.03047381 1.31806021 0.00057623 1.31103679 0.07208071 1.31518394 0.03149145 1.32866222 0.00049810 1.32107023 0.07507879 1.32535117 0.03252465 1.33926422 0.00048085 1.33110368 0.07833222 1.33551839 0.03375627 1.34986623 0.00057240 1.34113712 0.08156652 1.34568561 0.03480718 1.36046824 0.00074901 1.35117057 0.08528060 1.35585284 0.03592602 1.37107024 0.00091093 1.36120401 0.08933864 1.36602006 0.03729938 1.38167225 0.00105816 1.37123746 0.09346872 1.37618729 0.03875337 1.39227426 0.00122855 1.38127090 0.09835812 1.38635451 0.04048209 1.40287626 0.00150296 1.39130435 0.10402639 1.39652173 0.04209053 1.41347827 0.00181139 1.40133779 0.10950386 1.40668896 0.04385247 1.42408028 0.00212949 1.41137124 0.11472236 1.41685618 0.04575565 1.43468228 0.00250192 1.42140468 0.11983384 1.42702341 0.04782774 1.44528429 0.00305135 1.43143813 0.12469967 1.43719063 0.04976782 1.45588630 0.00360490 1.44147157 0.12975446 1.44735785 0.05188871 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3.57859532 0.07606353 3.61297656 0.22556150 3.72471578 0.68427368 3.58862876 0.07468166 3.62314378 0.21717724 3.73531779 0.67110557 3.59866221 0.07315935 3.63331100 0.20933456 3.74591980 0.65666661 3.60869565 0.07154719 3.64347823 0.20134763 3.75652181 0.64110401 3.61872910 0.06966182 3.65364545 0.19369190 3.76712381 0.62555426 3.62876254 0.06792557 3.66381268 0.18604511 3.77772582 0.61015051 3.63879599 0.06649594 3.67397990 0.17934193 3.78832783 0.59607262 3.64882943 0.06521582 3.68414712 0.17331853 3.79892983 0.58040553 3.65886288 0.06373812 3.69431435 0.16762254 3.80953184 0.56488131 3.66889632 0.06190576 3.70448157 0.16212358 3.82013385 0.54942263 3.67892977 0.05992734 3.71464880 0.15667028 3.83073585 0.53417835 3.68896321 0.05794960 3.72481602 0.15138274 3.84133786 0.51863657 3.69899666 0.05595923 3.73498324 0.14656524 3.85193987 0.50277125 3.70903010 0.05390463 3.74515047 0.14228780 3.86254187 0.48758914 3.71906355 0.05162824 3.75531769 0.13834252 3.87314388 0.47187963 3.72909699 0.04910070 3.76548492 0.13470077 3.88374589 0.45611445 3.73913043 0.04667833 3.77565214 0.13073754 3.89434790 0.43958189 3.74916388 0.04451041 3.78581936 0.12735433 3.90494990 0.42264752 3.75919732 0.04246249 3.79598659 0.12447237 3.91555191 0.40551307 3.76923077 0.04071353 3.80615381 0.12139450 3.92615392 0.38837639 3.77926421 0.03906991 3.81632103 0.11801839 3.93675592 0.37085629 3.78929766 0.03784780 3.82648826 0.11468316 3.94735793 0.35325899 3.79933110 0.03667257 3.83665548 0.11128508 3.95795994 0.33591364 3.80936455 0.03537213 3.84682271 0.10775255 3.96856194 0.31866445 3.81939799 0.03381661 3.85698993 0.10421171 3.97916395 0.30117874 3.82943144 0.03200602 3.86715715 0.10068432 3.98976596 0.28337161 3.83946488 0.03037819 3.87732438 0.09681628 4.00036797 0.26562269 3.84949833 0.02903303 3.88749160 0.09263328 4.01096997 0.24817289 3.85953177 0.02768702 3.89765883 0.08816720 4.02157198 0.23118970 3.86956522 0.02656947 3.90782605 0.08334813 4.03217399 0.21462649 3.87959866 0.02553526 3.91799327 0.07844810 4.04277599 0.19874630 3.88963211 0.02432799 3.92816050 0.07372328 4.05337800 0.18292168 3.89966555 0.02324681 3.93832772 0.06906030 4.06398001 0.16801092 3.90969900 0.02226277 3.94849495 0.06429516 4.07458201 0.15428674 3.91973244 0.02116735 3.95866217 0.05954072 4.08518402 0.14107781 3.92976589 0.02037944 3.96882939 0.05496738 4.09578603 0.12780233 3.93979933 0.01993447 3.97899662 0.05063274 4.10638803 0.11498462 3.94983278 0.01949569 3.98916384 0.04653033 4.11699004 0.10256134 3.95986622 0.01895540 3.99933107 0.04254535 4.12759205 0.09053332 3.96989967 0.01831359 4.00949829 0.03882266 4.13819406 0.07943030 3.97993311 0.01757027 4.01966551 0.03548018 4.14879606 0.06916882 3.98996656 0.01672542 4.02983274 0.03241348 4.15939807 0.05905514 4.00000000 0.01577907 4.03999996 0.02955222 4.17000008 0.04901420
Rank First two-year Two-year 95% lower CI Two-year 95% upper CI Rank First four-year Four-year 95% lower CI Four-year 95% upper CI 0 0.308 0.242 0.373 0 0.662 0.598 0.725 1 0.311 0.247 0.375 1 0.652 0.590 0.714 2 0.315 0.253 0.377 2 0.642 0.582 0.702 3 0.318 0.258 0.378 3 0.632 0.574 0.691 4 0.322 0.263 0.380 4 0.623 0.566 0.679 5 0.325 0.268 0.382 5 0.613 0.558 0.668 6 0.328 0.273 0.384 6 0.604 0.550 0.657 7 0.332 0.278 0.385 7 0.594 0.542 0.646 8 0.335 0.283 0.387 8 0.585 0.534 0.636 9 0.338 0.287 0.389 9 0.576 0.527 0.625 10 0.341 0.292 0.391 10 0.567 0.519 0.615 11 0.344 0.296 0.393 11 0.558 0.511 0.604 12 0.348 0.301 0.395 12 0.549 0.503 0.594 13 0.351 0.305 0.396 13 0.540 0.495 0.584 14 0.354 0.309 0.398 14 0.531 0.488 0.574 15 0.357 0.313 0.400 15 0.522 0.480 0.565 16 0.360 0.317 0.403 16 0.514 0.472 0.555 17 0.363 0.321 0.405 17 0.505 0.464 0.546 18 0.366 0.325 0.407 18 0.496 0.457 0.536 19 0.369 0.328 0.409 19 0.488 0.449 0.527 20 0.371 0.332 0.411 20 0.480 0.441 0.518 21 0.374 0.335 0.414 21 0.471 0.433 0.509 22 0.377 0.338 0.416 22 0.463 0.426 0.501 23 0.380 0.341 0.418 23 0.455 0.418 0.492 24 0.383 0.344 0.421 24 0.447 0.410 0.484 25 0.385 0.347 0.423 25 0.439 0.402 0.476 26 0.388 0.350 0.426 26 0.431 0.394 0.468 27 0.390 0.352 0.429 27 0.423 0.386 0.460 28 0.393 0.355 0.431 28 0.416 0.379 0.453 29 0.396 0.357 0.434 29 0.408 0.371 0.445 30 0.398 0.359 0.437 30 0.400 0.363 0.438 31 0.401 0.362 0.440 31 0.393 0.355 0.430 32 0.403 0.364 0.442 32 0.385 0.347 0.423 33 0.405 0.366 0.445 33 0.378 0.339 0.417 34 0.408 0.368 0.448 34 0.371 0.332 0.410 35 0.410 0.369 0.451 35 0.363 0.324 0.403 36 0.412 0.371 0.454 36 0.356 0.316 0.397 37 0.415 0.373 0.457 37 0.349 0.308 0.390 38 0.417 0.374 0.460 38 0.342 0.301 0.384 39 0.419 0.376 0.463 39 0.335 0.293 0.378 40 0.421 0.377 0.466 40 0.329 0.286 0.372 41 0.423 0.378 0.469 41 0.322 0.278 0.366 42 0.426 0.380 0.472 42 0.315 0.271 0.360 43 0.428 0.381 0.475 43 0.309 0.263 0.354 44 0.430 0.382 0.477 44 0.302 0.256 0.348 45 0.432 0.383 0.480 45 0.296 0.248 0.343 46 0.434 0.384 0.483 46 0.289 0.241 0.337 47 0.436 0.385 0.486 47 0.283 0.234 0.332 48 0.437 0.386 0.489 48 0.277 0.227 0.327 49 0.439 0.387 0.492 49 0.271 0.220 0.322 51 0.441 0.388 0.495 51 0.265 0.213 0.317 52 0.443 0.388 0.497 52 0.259 0.206 0.312 53 0.445 0.389 0.500 53 0.253 0.199 0.307 54 0.446 0.390 0.503 54 0.247 0.192 0.302 55 0.448 0.390 0.506 55 0.241 0.185 0.297 56 0.450 0.391 0.508 56 0.235 0.179 0.292 57 0.451 0.392 0.511 57 0.230 0.172 0.288 58 0.453 0.392 0.514 58 0.224 0.165 0.283 59 0.454 0.393 0.516 59 0.219 0.159 0.279 60 0.456 0.393 0.519 60 0.214 0.153 0.275 61 0.457 0.393 0.521 61 0.208 0.146 0.270 62 0.459 0.394 0.524 62 0.203 0.140 0.266 63 0.460 0.394 0.526 63 0.198 0.134 0.262 64 0.462 0.394 0.529 64 0.193 0.128 0.258 65 0.463 0.395 0.531 65 0.188 0.122 0.254 66 0.464 0.395 0.534 66 0.183 0.116 0.250 67 0.465 0.395 0.536 67 0.178 0.110 0.246 68 0.467 0.395 0.538 68 0.173 0.104 0.243 69 0.468 0.395 0.540 69 0.169 0.099 0.239 70 0.469 0.395 0.543 70 0.164 0.093 0.236 71 0.470 0.395 0.545 71 0.160 0.087 0.232 72 0.471 0.395 0.547 72 0.155 0.082 0.229 73 0.472 0.395 0.549 73 0.151 0.076 0.225 74 0.473 0.395 0.551 74 0.147 0.071 0.222 75 0.474 0.395 0.553 75 0.142 0.066 0.219 76 0.475 0.395 0.555 76 0.138 0.061 0.216 77 0.476 0.395 0.557 77 0.134 0.056 0.213 78 0.477 0.395 0.559 78 0.130 0.050 0.210 79 0.478 0.394 0.561 79 0.126 0.046 0.207 80 0.479 0.394 0.563 80 0.123 0.041 0.205 81 0.479 0.394 0.565 81 0.119 0.036 0.202 82 0.480 0.393 0.567 82 0.115 0.031 0.199 83 0.481 0.393 0.569 83 0.112 0.026 0.197 84 0.482 0.393 0.571 84 0.108 0.022 0.194 85 0.482 0.392 0.572 85 0.105 0.017 0.192 86 0.483 0.392 0.574 86 0.101 0.013 0.190 87 0.483 0.391 0.576 87 0.098 0.008 0.188 88 0.484 0.390 0.578 88 0.095 0.004 0.185 89 0.484 0.390 0.579 89 0.092 0.000 0.183 90 0.485 0.389 0.581 90 0.089 -0.004 0.182 91 0.485 0.388 0.582 91 0.086 -0.008 0.180 92 0.486 0.388 0.584 92 0.083 -0.012 0.178 93 0.486 0.387 0.585 93 0.080 -0.016 0.176 94 0.486 0.386 0.587 94 0.077 -0.020 0.175 95 0.487 0.385 0.588 95 0.075 -0.024 0.173 96 0.487 0.384 0.590 96 0.072 -0.028 0.172 97 0.487 0.383 0.591 97 0.069 -0.031 0.170 98 0.487 0.382 0.593 98 0.067 -0.035 0.169 99 0.488 0.381 0.594 99 0.065 -0.039 0.168 100 0.488 0.380 0.595 100 0.062 -0.042 0.167
Rank First two-year Two-year 95% lower CI Two-year 95% upper CI Rank First four-year Four-year 95% lower CI Four-year 95% upper CI 0 0.049 -0.026 0.123 0 0.935 0.865 1.004 2 0.063 -0.007 0.134 2 0.916 0.850 0.982 5 0.078 0.011 0.145 5 0.898 0.835 0.961 7 0.092 0.028 0.156 7 0.879 0.820 0.939 9 0.107 0.046 0.167 9 0.861 0.804 0.918 11 0.120 0.063 0.178 11 0.844 0.790 0.898 14 0.134 0.079 0.189 14 0.826 0.775 0.877 16 0.148 0.095 0.200 16 0.809 0.760 0.858 18 0.161 0.111 0.211 18 0.791 0.745 0.838 20 0.174 0.126 0.221 20 0.774 0.730 0.819 23 0.187 0.141 0.232 23 0.758 0.715 0.800 25 0.199 0.156 0.243 25 0.741 0.700 0.782 27 0.211 0.170 0.253 27 0.725 0.685 0.764 30 0.224 0.183 0.264 30 0.708 0.671 0.746 32 0.235 0.196 0.274 32 0.692 0.656 0.729 34 0.247 0.209 0.285 34 0.676 0.641 0.712 36 0.258 0.221 0.295 36 0.661 0.626 0.695 39 0.270 0.233 0.306 39 0.645 0.612 0.679 41 0.280 0.245 0.316 41 0.630 0.597 0.663 43 0.291 0.256 0.326 43 0.615 0.582 0.648 45 0.302 0.267 0.337 45 0.600 0.568 0.633 48 0.312 0.277 0.347 48 0.586 0.553 0.618 50 0.322 0.287 0.357 50 0.571 0.539 0.604 52 0.332 0.297 0.367 52 0.557 0.524 0.590 55 0.341 0.306 0.376 55 0.543 0.510 0.576 57 0.351 0.315 0.386 57 0.529 0.496 0.562 59 0.360 0.324 0.395 59 0.515 0.482 0.549 61 0.369 0.332 0.405 61 0.502 0.468 0.536 64 0.377 0.341 0.414 64 0.489 0.455 0.523 66 0.386 0.349 0.423 66 0.476 0.441 0.510 68 0.394 0.356 0.431 68 0.463 0.428 0.498 70 0.402 0.364 0.439 70 0.450 0.415 0.485 73 0.409 0.371 0.448 73 0.438 0.402 0.473 75 0.417 0.378 0.455 75 0.425 0.389 0.461 77 0.424 0.385 0.463 77 0.413 0.377 0.450 80 0.431 0.392 0.470 80 0.401 0.365 0.438 82 0.438 0.398 0.478 82 0.390 0.353 0.427 84 0.445 0.405 0.484 84 0.378 0.341 0.415 86 0.451 0.411 0.491 86 0.367 0.329 0.404 89 0.457 0.417 0.497 89 0.356 0.318 0.393 91 0.463 0.422 0.503 91 0.345 0.307 0.383 93 0.468 0.428 0.509 93 0.334 0.296 0.372 95 0.474 0.433 0.515 95 0.324 0.286 0.362 98 0.479 0.438 0.520 98 0.313 0.275 0.352 100 0.484 0.443 0.525 100 0.303 0.265 0.341 102 0.489 0.448 0.530 102 0.293 0.255 0.332 105 0.493 0.452 0.534 105 0.284 0.245 0.322 107 0.498 0.457 0.538 107 0.274 0.236 0.312 109 0.502 0.461 0.542 109 0.265 0.227 0.303 111 0.505 0.465 0.546 111 0.256 0.218 0.294 114 0.509 0.468 0.550 114 0.247 0.209 0.285 116 0.512 0.471 0.553 116 0.238 0.200 0.276 118 0.515 0.475 0.556 118 0.229 0.191 0.268 120 0.518 0.477 0.559 120 0.221 0.183 0.259 123 0.521 0.480 0.562 123 0.213 0.175 0.251 125 0.523 0.482 0.565 125 0.205 0.167 0.244 127 0.526 0.484 0.567 127 0.197 0.159 0.236 130 0.528 0.486 0.569 130 0.190 0.151 0.229 132 0.529 0.487 0.572 132 0.182 0.143 0.222 134 0.531 0.488 0.574 134 0.175 0.135 0.215 136 0.532 0.489 0.575 136 0.168 0.128 0.209 139 0.533 0.489 0.577 139 0.161 0.120 0.203 141 0.534 0.489 0.579 141 0.155 0.113 0.197 143 0.535 0.489 0.581 143 0.149 0.106 0.192 145 0.535 0.488 0.582 145 0.142 0.098 0.187 148 0.535 0.487 0.584 148 0.136 0.091 0.182 150 0.535 0.485 0.585 150 0.131 0.084 0.177 152 0.535 0.483 0.587 152 0.125 0.077 0.173 155 0.534 0.480 0.588 155 0.120 0.070 0.170 157 0.533 0.478 0.589 157 0.114 0.062 0.166 159 0.532 0.474 0.590 159 0.109 0.055 0.164 161 0.531 0.471 0.591 161 0.105 0.048 0.161 164 0.530 0.467 0.592 164 0.100 0.041 0.159 166 0.528 0.463 0.593 166 0.096 0.035 0.157 168 0.526 0.458 0.594 168 0.091 0.028 0.155 170 0.524 0.453 0.595 170 0.087 0.021 0.154 173 0.521 0.447 0.596 173 0.084 0.014 0.153 175 0.519 0.441 0.597 175 0.080 0.007 0.153 177 0.516 0.435 0.597 177 0.077 0.001 0.152 180 0.513 0.428 0.598 180 0.073 -0.006 0.153 182 0.510 0.421 0.598 182 0.070 -0.012 0.153 184 0.506 0.414 0.598 184 0.068 -0.019 0.154 186 0.502 0.406 0.599 186 0.065 -0.025 0.155 189 0.498 0.398 0.599 189 0.063 -0.031 0.156 191 0.494 0.389 0.599 191 0.060 -0.038 0.158 193 0.490 0.380 0.599 193 0.058 -0.044 0.160 195 0.485 0.371 0.599 195 0.056 -0.050 0.163 198 0.480 0.362 0.598 198 0.055 -0.056 0.165 200 0.475 0.352 0.598 200 0.053 -0.062 0.168 202 0.469 0.341 0.598 202 0.052 -0.068 0.172 205 0.464 0.331 0.597 205 0.051 -0.073 0.175 207 0.458 0.320 0.596 207 0.050 -0.079 0.179 209 0.452 0.308 0.596 209 0.050 -0.085 0.184 211 0.446 0.297 0.595 211 0.049 -0.090 0.188 214 0.439 0.285 0.594 214 0.049 -0.096 0.193 216 0.432 0.272 0.593 216 0.049 -0.101 0.198 218 0.425 0.259 0.591 218 0.049 -0.106 0.204 220 0.418 0.246 0.590 220 0.049 -0.111 0.210 223 0.411 0.233 0.589 223 0.050 -0.116 0.216 225 0.403 0.219 0.587 225 0.050 -0.121 0.222
Rank First two-year Two-year 95% lower CI Two-year 95% upper CI Rank First four-year Four-year 95% lower CI Four-year 95% upper CI 0 0.080 0.025 0.134 0 0.933 0.881 0.984 5 0.093 0.041 0.145 5 0.915 0.866 0.964 9 0.106 0.056 0.155 9 0.897 0.850 0.944 14 0.118 0.071 0.165 14 0.879 0.835 0.924 19 0.131 0.086 0.175 19 0.862 0.819 0.904 24 0.143 0.100 0.185 24 0.845 0.804 0.885 28 0.155 0.114 0.195 28 0.827 0.789 0.866 33 0.166 0.128 0.205 33 0.811 0.774 0.847 38 0.178 0.141 0.215 38 0.794 0.759 0.829 43 0.189 0.154 0.225 43 0.777 0.744 0.811 47 0.201 0.167 0.235 47 0.761 0.729 0.793 52 0.212 0.179 0.244 52 0.745 0.714 0.776 57 0.223 0.191 0.254 57 0.729 0.700 0.759 62 0.233 0.203 0.263 62 0.714 0.685 0.742 66 0.244 0.215 0.273 66 0.698 0.671 0.726 71 0.254 0.226 0.282 71 0.683 0.656 0.709 76 0.264 0.237 0.291 76 0.668 0.642 0.694 81 0.274 0.247 0.301 81 0.653 0.628 0.678 85 0.284 0.257 0.310 85 0.638 0.613 0.663 90 0.293 0.267 0.319 90 0.624 0.599 0.648 95 0.303 0.277 0.328 95 0.610 0.585 0.634 100 0.312 0.286 0.337 100 0.596 0.572 0.620 104 0.321 0.295 0.346 104 0.582 0.558 0.606 109 0.329 0.304 0.355 109 0.568 0.544 0.592 114 0.338 0.313 0.363 114 0.555 0.531 0.579 119 0.346 0.321 0.372 119 0.541 0.517 0.565 123 0.355 0.329 0.380 123 0.528 0.504 0.553 128 0.363 0.337 0.388 128 0.516 0.491 0.540 133 0.370 0.345 0.396 133 0.503 0.478 0.527 138 0.378 0.352 0.404 138 0.491 0.466 0.515 142 0.386 0.359 0.412 142 0.478 0.453 0.503 147 0.393 0.366 0.419 147 0.466 0.441 0.491 152 0.400 0.373 0.427 152 0.454 0.429 0.480 157 0.407 0.380 0.434 157 0.443 0.417 0.468 161 0.413 0.386 0.441 161 0.431 0.406 0.457 166 0.420 0.392 0.447 166 0.420 0.394 0.446 171 0.426 0.398 0.454 171 0.409 0.383 0.435 176 0.432 0.404 0.460 176 0.398 0.372 0.425 180 0.438 0.410 0.466 180 0.388 0.361 0.414 185 0.444 0.416 0.472 185 0.377 0.351 0.404 190 0.450 0.421 0.478 190 0.367 0.340 0.394 195 0.455 0.426 0.483 195 0.357 0.330 0.384 199 0.460 0.431 0.489 199 0.347 0.320 0.374 204 0.465 0.436 0.494 204 0.338 0.311 0.365 209 0.470 0.441 0.499 209 0.328 0.301 0.356 214 0.475 0.446 0.503 214 0.319 0.292 0.346 218 0.479 0.450 0.508 218 0.310 0.283 0.337 223 0.483 0.454 0.512 223 0.301 0.274 0.329 228 0.487 0.458 0.516 228 0.293 0.266 0.320 233 0.491 0.462 0.520 233 0.284 0.257 0.312 237 0.495 0.466 0.524 237 0.276 0.249 0.304 242 0.498 0.469 0.527 242 0.268 0.241 0.296 247 0.501 0.473 0.530 247 0.261 0.233 0.288 252 0.505 0.476 0.534 252 0.253 0.226 0.280 256 0.507 0.478 0.537 256 0.246 0.218 0.273 261 0.510 0.481 0.539 261 0.238 0.211 0.266 266 0.513 0.483 0.542 266 0.231 0.204 0.259 271 0.515 0.485 0.545 271 0.225 0.197 0.253 275 0.517 0.487 0.547 275 0.218 0.190 0.247 280 0.519 0.489 0.550 280 0.212 0.183 0.240 285 0.521 0.490 0.552 285 0.206 0.177 0.235 290 0.523 0.491 0.554 290 0.200 0.170 0.229 294 0.524 0.492 0.556 294 0.194 0.164 0.224 299 0.525 0.493 0.558 299 0.188 0.158 0.219 304 0.526 0.493 0.560 304 0.183 0.151 0.215 309 0.527 0.493 0.561 309 0.178 0.145 0.210 313 0.528 0.492 0.563 313 0.173 0.140 0.206 318 0.528 0.492 0.565 318 0.168 0.134 0.203 323 0.528 0.491 0.566 323 0.164 0.128 0.199 328 0.528 0.490 0.567 328 0.159 0.123 0.196 332 0.528 0.488 0.569 332 0.155 0.117 0.193 337 0.528 0.486 0.570 337 0.151 0.112 0.191 342 0.528 0.484 0.571 342 0.148 0.106 0.189 347 0.527 0.481 0.572 347 0.144 0.101 0.187 351 0.526 0.479 0.573 351 0.141 0.096 0.185 356 0.525 0.476 0.574 356 0.138 0.091 0.184 361 0.524 0.472 0.575 361 0.135 0.086 0.183 366 0.522 0.469 0.576 366 0.132 0.081 0.183 370 0.521 0.465 0.576 370 0.129 0.077 0.182 375 0.519 0.460 0.577 375 0.127 0.072 0.182 380 0.517 0.456 0.578 380 0.125 0.068 0.183 385 0.515 0.451 0.578 385 0.123 0.063 0.183 389 0.512 0.446 0.578 389 0.121 0.059 0.184 394 0.510 0.441 0.579 394 0.120 0.055 0.185 399 0.507 0.435 0.579 399 0.119 0.051 0.186 404 0.504 0.429 0.579 404 0.117 0.047 0.188 408 0.501 0.423 0.579 408 0.117 0.043 0.190 413 0.497 0.416 0.578 413 0.116 0.039 0.192 418 0.494 0.410 0.578 418 0.115 0.036 0.195 423 0.490 0.403 0.578 423 0.115 0.032 0.198 427 0.486 0.395 0.577 427 0.115 0.029 0.201 432 0.482 0.388 0.577 432 0.115 0.026 0.204 437 0.478 0.380 0.576 437 0.115 0.023 0.208 442 0.474 0.372 0.575 442 0.116 0.020 0.212 446 0.469 0.363 0.574 446 0.117 0.017 0.216 451 0.464 0.355 0.573 451 0.118 0.014 0.221 456 0.459 0.346 0.572 456 0.119 0.012 0.226 461 0.454 0.337 0.571 461 0.120 0.009 0.231 465 0.448 0.327 0.570 465 0.122 0.007 0.236 470 0.443 0.317 0.568 470 0.123 0.005 0.242
Rank First two-year Two-year 95% lower CI Two-year 95% upper CI Rank First four-year Four-year 95% lower CI Four-year 95% upper CI 0 0.194 0.105 0.282 0 0.869 0.788 0.950 10 0.203 0.119 0.288 10 0.850 0.773 0.928 20 0.212 0.131 0.294 20 0.832 0.758 0.906 30 0.222 0.144 0.299 30 0.814 0.742 0.885 40 0.231 0.156 0.305 40 0.795 0.727 0.864 51 0.240 0.168 0.311 51 0.778 0.712 0.843 61 0.248 0.180 0.317 61 0.760 0.697 0.823 71 0.257 0.191 0.323 71 0.742 0.682 0.802 81 0.266 0.203 0.329 81 0.725 0.667 0.783 91 0.274 0.213 0.334 91 0.708 0.652 0.763 101 0.282 0.224 0.340 101 0.691 0.638 0.744 111 0.290 0.234 0.346 111 0.674 0.623 0.726 121 0.298 0.244 0.352 121 0.658 0.608 0.707 131 0.306 0.254 0.358 131 0.642 0.594 0.689 141 0.314 0.263 0.365 141 0.626 0.579 0.672 152 0.322 0.273 0.371 152 0.610 0.565 0.655 162 0.329 0.281 0.377 162 0.594 0.550 0.638 172 0.337 0.290 0.383 172 0.579 0.536 0.621 182 0.344 0.298 0.389 182 0.563 0.521 0.605 192 0.351 0.306 0.396 192 0.548 0.507 0.589 202 0.358 0.314 0.402 202 0.533 0.493 0.574 212 0.365 0.321 0.408 212 0.519 0.479 0.559 222 0.372 0.328 0.415 222 0.504 0.465 0.544 232 0.378 0.335 0.421 232 0.490 0.451 0.529 242 0.385 0.342 0.427 242 0.476 0.437 0.515 253 0.391 0.348 0.434 253 0.462 0.423 0.501 263 0.397 0.354 0.440 263 0.449 0.409 0.488 273 0.403 0.360 0.446 273 0.435 0.396 0.475 283 0.409 0.366 0.453 283 0.422 0.382 0.462 293 0.415 0.372 0.459 293 0.409 0.369 0.449 303 0.421 0.377 0.465 303 0.396 0.356 0.437 313 0.426 0.382 0.471 313 0.384 0.343 0.424 323 0.432 0.387 0.477 323 0.371 0.330 0.412 333 0.437 0.392 0.483 333 0.359 0.318 0.401 343 0.442 0.397 0.488 343 0.347 0.305 0.389 354 0.448 0.401 0.494 354 0.335 0.293 0.378 364 0.452 0.406 0.499 364 0.324 0.281 0.367 374 0.457 0.410 0.505 374 0.313 0.269 0.356 384 0.462 0.414 0.510 384 0.301 0.257 0.346 394 0.467 0.418 0.515 394 0.291 0.246 0.335 404 0.471 0.422 0.521 404 0.280 0.234 0.325 414 0.475 0.425 0.526 414 0.269 0.223 0.315 424 0.480 0.429 0.530 424 0.259 0.212 0.306 434 0.484 0.432 0.535 434 0.249 0.202 0.296 444 0.488 0.435 0.540 444 0.239 0.191 0.287 455 0.491 0.438 0.544 455 0.229 0.181 0.278 465 0.495 0.441 0.549 465 0.220 0.170 0.269 475 0.499 0.444 0.553 475 0.210 0.160 0.260 485 0.502 0.447 0.557 485 0.201 0.151 0.252 495 0.505 0.449 0.562 495 0.192 0.141 0.244 505 0.508 0.451 0.566 505 0.184 0.131 0.236 515 0.512 0.453 0.570 515 0.175 0.122 0.229 525 0.514 0.455 0.574 525 0.167 0.113 0.221 535 0.517 0.457 0.577 535 0.159 0.104 0.214 545 0.520 0.459 0.581 545 0.151 0.095 0.207 556 0.522 0.460 0.585 556 0.144 0.086 0.201 566 0.525 0.461 0.589 566 0.136 0.078 0.194 576 0.527 0.462 0.592 576 0.129 0.069 0.188 586 0.529 0.463 0.596 586 0.122 0.061 0.183 596 0.531 0.463 0.599 596 0.115 0.053 0.177 606 0.533 0.464 0.603 606 0.108 0.045 0.172 616 0.535 0.464 0.606 616 0.102 0.037 0.167 626 0.537 0.464 0.609 626 0.096 0.029 0.162 636 0.538 0.464 0.613 636 0.090 0.022 0.158 646 0.539 0.463 0.616 646 0.084 0.014 0.154 657 0.541 0.462 0.619 657 0.078 0.007 0.150 667 0.542 0.461 0.623 667 0.073 -0.001 0.147 677 0.543 0.460 0.626 677 0.068 -0.008 0.144 687 0.544 0.459 0.629 687 0.063 -0.015 0.141 697 0.545 0.457 0.632 697 0.058 -0.022 0.138 707 0.545 0.455 0.635 707 0.054 -0.029 0.136 717 0.546 0.453 0.639 717 0.049 -0.036 0.134 727 0.546 0.450 0.642 727 0.045 -0.043 0.133 737 0.546 0.448 0.645 737 0.041 -0.049 0.131 747 0.546 0.445 0.648 747 0.037 -0.056 0.130 758 0.546 0.441 0.651 758 0.034 -0.062 0.130 768 0.546 0.438 0.654 768 0.030 -0.069 0.130 778 0.546 0.434 0.657 778 0.027 -0.075 0.129 788 0.546 0.430 0.661 788 0.024 -0.081 0.130 798 0.545 0.426 0.664 798 0.022 -0.087 0.130 808 0.544 0.422 0.667 808 0.019 -0.093 0.131 818 0.544 0.417 0.670 818 0.017 -0.099 0.133 828 0.543 0.412 0.673 828 0.015 -0.105 0.134 838 0.542 0.407 0.676 838 0.013 -0.110 0.136 848 0.540 0.402 0.679 848 0.011 -0.116 0.138 859 0.539 0.396 0.682 859 0.010 -0.121 0.141 869 0.538 0.390 0.685 869 0.008 -0.127 0.144 879 0.536 0.384 0.688 879 0.007 -0.132 0.147 889 0.535 0.378 0.691 889 0.007 -0.137 0.150 899 0.533 0.371 0.694 899 0.006 -0.142 0.154 909 0.531 0.364 0.697 909 0.005 -0.147 0.158 919 0.529 0.357 0.700 919 0.005 -0.152 0.162 929 0.527 0.350 0.703 929 0.005 -0.157 0.167 939 0.524 0.342 0.706 939 0.005 -0.161 0.172 949 0.522 0.334 0.709 949 0.006 -0.166 0.177 960 0.519 0.326 0.712 960 0.006 -0.170 0.183 970 0.517 0.318 0.715 970 0.007 -0.175 0.189 980 0.514 0.309 0.718 980 0.008 -0.179 0.195 990 0.511 0.301 0.721 990 0.009 -0.183 0.202 1000 0.508 0.292 0.724 1000 0.011 -0.187 0.209